Serie B (Brazil) · Wed, Oct 7 · 23:30 · América Mineiro vs Fortaleza
Likeliest: Fortaleza win · 41%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
América Mineiro27%30%−4
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Fortaleza41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
América Mineiro
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 3 · at Atlético Goianiense (A)0-2
- Sep 28 · v Juventude (H)0-1
- Sep 18 · at Vila Nova FC (A)0-1
- Sep 14 · v São Bernardo (H)0-2
- Sep 9 · v Náutico (H)2-1
Fortaleza
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 3 · v Náutico (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · v Athletic Club (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · at Londrina (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Ceará (H)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Avaí (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | América Mineiro | Fortaleza |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-0-8 | 4-6-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.