Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Mar 20 · 19:00 · Amiens SC vs Le Mans
Likeliest: Amiens SC win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 26%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Amiens SC38%26%+11
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Le Mans35%45%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 55% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 74% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 37% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Amiens SC
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Mar 13 · at Guingamp (A)0-1
- Mar 6 · at Boulogne (A)2-4
- Mar 2 · v Troyes (H)0-2
- Feb 21 · at Reims (A)0-0
- Feb 13 · v Dunkerque (H)1-4
Le Mans
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Mar 13 · at Nancy (A)4-2
- Mar 7 · v Annecy (H)3-0
- Feb 28 · at Red Star (A)0-0
- Feb 23 · v Guingamp (H)1-1
- Feb 14 · at Montpellier (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | Amiens SC | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.