Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Apr 24 · 18:00 · Amiens SC vs Montpellier
Likeliest: Amiens SC win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 27%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Amiens SC42%27%+15
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Montpellier33%47%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 59% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 53% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 73% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 37% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Amiens SC
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Apr 17 · at Rodez (A)2-3
- Apr 10 · v Pau (H)0-1
- Apr 3 · at Bastia (A)1-1
- Mar 20 · v Le Mans (H)3-4
- Mar 13 · at Guingamp (A)0-1
Montpellier
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Apr 17 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)2-1
- Apr 10 · at Annecy (A)0-0
- Apr 4 · v Troyes (H)2-2
- Mar 20 · at Pau (A)0-0
- Mar 13 · v Laval (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Amiens SC | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.