NWSL (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 00:45 · Angel City FC vs Bay FC
Likeliest: Angel City FC win · 59%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Angel City FC59%56%+3
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−1
OursMarket
Bay FC20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Angel City FC
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Denver Summit FC (A)3-2
- Oct 4 · at NJ/NY Gotham FC (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Washington Spirit (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Utah Royals FC (A)3-0
- Sep 17 · v Seattle Reign FC (H)3-1
Bay FC
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v Portland Thorns FC (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Kansas City Current (A)1-5
- Sep 27 · v Orlando Pride (H)1-3
- Sep 20 · v Racing Louisville (H)2-0
- Sep 17 · at Denver Summit FC (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Angel City FC | Bay FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.