Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Apr 18 · 17:00 · Angers SCO vs Le Havre
Likeliest: Angers SCO win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 31%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Angers SCO44%31%+12
OursMarket
Draw27%32%−4
OursMarket
Le Havre29%37%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 40% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 63% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 69% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 68% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 46% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Angers SCO
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Apr 11 · at Rennes (A)1-2
- Apr 5 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
- Mar 20 · at Lens (A)1-5
- Mar 14 · v Nice (H)0-2
- Mar 7 · at Nantes (A)1-0
Le Havre
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Apr 12 · at Nice (A)1-1
- Apr 5 · v Auxerre (H)1-1
- Mar 22 · at Paris (A)2-3
- Mar 15 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
- Mar 8 · at Brest (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Angers SCO | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.