Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Nov 30 · 16:15 · Angers SCO vs Lens
Likeliest: Angers SCO win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 20%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Angers SCO41%20%+20
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Lens34%55%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 45% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 80% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 27% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Angers SCO
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Nov 23 · at Toulouse (A)1-0
- Nov 9 · v Auxerre (H)2-0
- Nov 2 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-1
- Oct 29 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-2
- Oct 26 · v Lorient (H)2-0
Lens
WinLossWinWinWin
- Nov 22 · v Strasbourg (H)1-0
- Nov 8 · at Monaco (A)4-1
- Nov 2 · v Lorient (H)3-0
- Oct 29 · at Metz (A)0-2
- Oct 25 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Angers SCO | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.