Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 22 · 16:15 · Angers SCO vs LOSC Lille
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 43%
A 33% home win. The market says 22%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Angers SCO33%22%+10
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−3
OursMarket
LOSC Lille43%51%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 46% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 78% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 31% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Angers SCO
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Feb 15 · at Lorient (A)0-2
- Feb 8 · v Toulouse (H)1-0
- Feb 1 · v Metz (H)1-0
- Jan 25 · at Paris (A)0-0
- Jan 17 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-5
LOSC Lille
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 19 · v Crvena Zvezda (H)0-1
- Feb 14 · v Brest (H)1-1
- Feb 6 · at Metz (A)0-0
- Feb 1 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-1
- Jan 29 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Angers SCO | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.