Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 1 · 16:15 · Angers SCO vs Metz
Likeliest: Angers SCO win · 45%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Angers SCO45%44%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Metz31%27%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 45% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 51% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 62% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Angers SCO
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Jan 25 · at Paris (A)0-0
- Jan 17 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-5
- Jan 10 · v Toulouse (H)1-1
- Jan 4 · at Le Havre (A)1-2
- Dec 12 · v Nantes (H)4-1
Metz
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Jan 25 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)2-5
- Jan 18 · at Strasbourg (A)1-2
- Jan 11 · v Montpellier (H)0-4
- Jan 4 · at Lorient (A)1-1
- Dec 20 · at Biesheim (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Angers SCO | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.