Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Dec 12 · 19:45 · Angers SCO vs Nantes
Likeliest: Angers SCO win · 45%
We make it 62% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Angers SCO45%44%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Nantes29%26%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 43% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 74% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 63% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Angers SCO
LossWinWinLossWin
- Dec 7 · at Nice (A)1-0
- Nov 30 · v Lens (H)1-2
- Nov 23 · at Toulouse (A)1-0
- Nov 9 · v Auxerre (H)2-0
- Nov 2 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-1
Nantes
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Dec 6 · v Lens (H)1-2
- Nov 30 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-3
- Nov 23 · v Lorient (H)1-1
- Nov 8 · at Le Havre (A)1-1
- Nov 2 · v Metz (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Angers SCO | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.