Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Mar 14 · 18:00 · Angers SCO vs Nice
Likeliest: Nice win · 39%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Angers SCO37%30%+7
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Nice39%40%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 47% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 53% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 70% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 43% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Angers SCO
WinLossLossLossWin
- Mar 7 · at Nantes (A)1-0
- Feb 28 · at Monaco (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-1
- Feb 15 · at Lorient (A)0-2
- Feb 8 · v Toulouse (H)1-0
Nice
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Mar 8 · v Rennes (H)0-4
- Mar 1 · at Paris (A)0-1
- Feb 22 · v Lorient (H)3-3
- Feb 15 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-2
- Feb 8 · v Monaco (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Angers SCO | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.