Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 5 · 13:00 · Angers SCO vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 43%
A 32% home win. The market says 20%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Angers SCO32%20%+11
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais43%53%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 47% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 80% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 28% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Angers SCO
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Mar 20 · at Lens (A)1-5
- Mar 14 · v Nice (H)0-2
- Mar 7 · at Nantes (A)1-0
- Feb 28 · at Monaco (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-1
Olympique Lyonnais
DrawDrawDrawLossLoss
- Mar 22 · v Monaco (H)1-2
- Mar 19 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-2
- Mar 15 · at Le Havre (A)0-0
- Mar 12 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-1
- Mar 8 · v Paris (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Angers SCO | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.