Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Jan 17 · 20:05 · Angers SCO vs Olympique Marseille
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 45%
A 31% home win. The market says 17%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Angers SCO31%17%+13
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Olympique Marseille45%59%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 51% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 41% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 83% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 23% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Angers SCO
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Jan 10 · v Toulouse (H)1-1
- Jan 4 · at Le Havre (A)1-2
- Dec 12 · v Nantes (H)4-1
- Dec 7 · at Nice (A)1-0
- Nov 30 · v Lens (H)1-2
Olympique Marseille
WinWinWinLossWin
- Jan 13 · at Bayeux (A)9-0
- Jan 4 · v Nantes (H)0-2
- Dec 21 · at Bourg-en-Bresse (A)6-0
- Dec 14 · v Monaco (H)1-0
- Dec 9 · at Union Saint-Gilloise (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Angers SCO | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Angers SCO form·Olympique Marseille form·Head-to-head record