Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Apr 25 · 17:00 · Angers SCO vs Paris Saint Germain
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 64%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Angers SCO15%9%+7
OursMarket
Draw21%15%+5
OursMarket
Paris Saint Germain64%76%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 63% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 48% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 36% | 24% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 91% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 85% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 19% | 10% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Angers SCO
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Apr 18 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Rennes (A)1-2
- Apr 5 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
- Mar 20 · at Lens (A)1-5
- Mar 14 · v Nice (H)0-2
Paris Saint Germain
WinWinWinLossWin
- Apr 22 · v Nantes (H)3-0
- Apr 19 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-2
- Apr 14 · at Liverpool (A)2-0
- Apr 8 · v Liverpool (H)2-0
- Apr 3 · v Toulouse (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Angers SCO | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.