Coupe de France (France) · Sat, Jan 10 · 14:30 · Angers SCO vs Toulouse
Likeliest: Toulouse win · 43%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Angers SCO32%27%+5
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Toulouse43%43%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 42% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 48% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 73% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 39% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Angers SCO
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Jan 4 · at Le Havre (A)1-2
- Dec 12 · v Nantes (H)4-1
- Dec 7 · at Nice (A)1-0
- Nov 30 · v Lens (H)1-2
- Nov 23 · at Toulouse (A)1-0
Toulouse
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Jan 2 · v Lens (H)0-3
- Dec 20 · at Lyon Duchère (A)2-1
- Dec 13 · at Paris (A)3-0
- Dec 6 · v Strasbourg (H)1-0
- Nov 29 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Angers SCO | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.