Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 8 · 16:15 · Angers SCO vs Toulouse
Likeliest: Toulouse win · 42%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Angers SCO32%26%+5
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Toulouse42%43%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 40% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 47% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 74% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 38% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Angers SCO
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Feb 1 · v Metz (H)1-0
- Jan 25 · at Paris (A)0-0
- Jan 17 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-5
- Jan 10 · v Toulouse (H)1-1
- Jan 4 · at Le Havre (A)1-2
Toulouse
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Feb 4 · v Amiens SC (H)1-0
- Feb 1 · v Auxerre (H)0-0
- Jan 25 · at Brest (A)2-0
- Jan 17 · v Nice (H)5-1
- Jan 10 · at Angers SCO (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Angers SCO | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.