Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Aug 23 · 13:00 · Angers vs Lille
Likeliest: Lille win · 44%
A 30% home win. The market says 19%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Angers30%19%+11
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Lille44%56%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 49% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 44% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 81% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 25% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.