Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Sep 19 · 18:45 · Angers vs Troyes
Likeliest: Angers win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Angers43%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+2
OursMarket
Troyes27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Angers
LossWinLossDraw
- Sep 12 · at Le Havre (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Stade Rennais (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at Auxerre (A)3-1
- Aug 23 · v Lille (H)0-2
Troyes
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 13 · at Lille (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v RC Strasbourg (H)2-6
- Aug 29 · at Lorient (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Paris FC (H)0-0
- May 9 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Angers | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 60% |
| Both teams scored | — | 40% |
| Clean sheets | — | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.