Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Tue, Oct 6 · 19:00 · Angola vs Malawi
Likeliest: Angola win · 58%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Angola58%68%−10
OursMarket
Draw30%22%+8
OursMarket
Malawi13%10%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 42% | 41% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 90% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 32% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 78% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 87% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Angola
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 25 · at Egypt (A)0-0
- Jun 9 · v Central African Republic (H)3-0
- Jun 9 · v Central African Republic (H)0-3
- Jun 5 · v Mauritania (H)1-1
- Nov 18 · v Zambia (H)3-2
Malawi
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 25 · v South Sudan (H)0-0
- Jun 9 · at Ethiopia (A)1-1
- Jun 6 · at Ethiopia (A)0-1
- Mar 31 · at Botswana (A)0-1
- Nov 18 · at Lesotho (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Angola | Malawi |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-2 | 2-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 14% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 57% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.