Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Aug 29 · 12:00 · Annecy FC vs Metz
Likeliest: Annecy FC win · 63%
We make it 62% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Annecy FC63%37%+26
OursMarket
Draw21%28%−7
OursMarket
Metz16%35%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 46% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 65% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 63% | −26 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 72% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 51% | +29 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Annecy FC
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Aug 24 · at Stade de Reims (A)1-3
- Aug 14 · v Rodez AF (H)2-0
- Aug 8 · at Pau FC (A)1-0
- May 9 · v Rodez (H)1-2
- May 2 · at Boulogne (A)2-1
Metz
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Aug 22 · v Stade Lavallois (H)1-1
- Aug 14 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · v Guingamp (H)2-1
- May 17 · at Nice (A)0-0
- May 10 · v Lorient (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | Annecy FC | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 0-5-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.