Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:00 · Annecy FC vs Nancy
Likeliest: Nancy win · 39%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Annecy FC32%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Nancy39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Annecy FC
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Oct 9 · at USL Dunkerque (A)1-0
- Sep 18 · v Dijon (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Guingamp (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Metz (H)1-1
Nancy
WinLossLossWinWin
- Oct 9 · v Guingamp (H)1-0
- Sep 18 · at Rodez AF (A)4-3
- Sep 11 · v Stade de Reims (H)1-2
- Sep 7 · at Nantes (A)0-1
- Aug 28 · v USL Dunkerque (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Annecy FC | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.