Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Apr 10 · 18:00 · Annecy vs Montpellier
Likeliest: Annecy win · 40%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Annecy40%37%+3
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Montpellier34%33%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 45% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 52% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Annecy
WinLossLossLossWin
- Apr 3 · v Guingamp (H)1-0
- Mar 21 · at Saint-Étienne (A)0-4
- Mar 16 · v Troyes (H)1-2
- Mar 7 · at Le Mans (A)0-3
- Feb 27 · at Bastia (A)2-0
Montpellier
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Apr 4 · v Troyes (H)2-2
- Mar 20 · at Pau (A)0-0
- Mar 13 · v Laval (H)2-0
- Mar 6 · at Nancy (A)3-0
- Feb 27 · v Reims (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Annecy | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.