Ligue 2 (France) · Mon, Mar 16 · 19:45 · Annecy vs Troyes
Likeliest: Troyes win · 47%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Annecy29%34%−5
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−5
OursMarket
Troyes47%36%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 46% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 52% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 64% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 66% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 48% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Annecy
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Mar 7 · at Le Mans (A)0-3
- Feb 27 · at Bastia (A)2-0
- Feb 20 · v Red Star (H)2-1
- Feb 13 · at Laval (A)2-2
- Feb 6 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)1-1
Troyes
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Mar 7 · v Clermont (H)2-1
- Mar 2 · at Amiens SC (A)2-0
- Feb 21 · v Pau (H)4-3
- Feb 16 · at Bastia (A)0-0
- Feb 7 · at Nancy (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Annecy | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.