1. Lig (Turkey) · Wed, Oct 14 · 17:00 · Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor
Likeliest: Kayserispor win · 40%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Antalyaspor31%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Kayserispor40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Antalyaspor
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Boluspor (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Van Spor Futbol Kulübü (H)3-0
- Sep 12 · at Ümraniyespor (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Sivasspor (H)1-2
- Sep 1 · at Bandırmaspor (A)1-0
Kayserispor
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Manisa FK (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · at Mardin 1969 Spor (A)1-0
- Sep 14 · v İstanbulspor (H)4-0
- Sep 7 · at Esenler Erokspor (A)3-0
- Sep 2 · at Fatih Karagümrük (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Antalyaspor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.