Championship (Scotland) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 · Arbroath vs Dunfermline Athletic
Likeliest: Arbroath win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 34%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arbroath47%34%+12
OursMarket
Draw28%29%−2
OursMarket
Dunfermline Athletic25%36%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 43% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 64% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 66% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 49% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arbroath
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Aug 29 · v Livingston (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · at Greenock Morton (A)2-1
- Aug 8 · v Inverness Caledonian Thistle (H)0-0
- Aug 1 · at Ayr United (A)0-2
- May 8 · v Dunfermline Athletic (H)0-0
Dunfermline Athletic
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Aug 28 · v Raith Rovers (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · at Livingston (A)0-2
- Aug 8 · v Ayr United (H)1-1
- Aug 1 · at Inverness Caledonian Thistle (A)0-0
- May 15 · at Partick Thistle (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Arbroath | Dunfermline Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-2 | 2-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 17% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.