Championship (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Arbroath vs Greenock Morton
Likeliest: Arbroath win · 52%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arbroath52%52%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Greenock Morton20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 44% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arbroath
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · at Partick Thistle (A)0-3
- Sep 25 · v Queen's Park FC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Stenhousemuir (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Raith Rovers (A)0-4
- Sep 5 · v Dunfermline Athletic (H)1-1
Greenock Morton
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · v Raith Rovers (H)1-2
- Sep 25 · at Inverness Caledonian Thistle (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Dunfermline Athletic (H)0-1
- Sep 11 · v Livingston (H)1-4
- Sep 5 · at Queen's Park FC (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Arbroath | Greenock Morton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 0-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 11% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.