First League (Bulgaria) · Mon, Aug 31 · 18:15 · Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa
Likeliest: Arda Kardzhali win · 46%
A 28% away win. The market says 14%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arda Kardzhali46%62%−15
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Botev Vratsa28%14%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 42% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 41% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 86% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 38% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 82% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arda Kardzhali
WinLossWinWinWin
- Aug 24 · at Lokomotiv Plovdiv (A)1-0
- Aug 17 · v Lokomotiv Sofia (H)3-1
- Aug 8 · at FK Dunav Ruse (A)2-0
- Jul 31 · at FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (A)1-2
- Jul 24 · v Slavia Sofia (H)1-0
Botev Vratsa
LossLossLossLossWin
- Aug 24 · v Botev Plovdiv (H)1-0
- Aug 16 · at CSKA Sofia (A)0-5
- Aug 10 · v Slavia Sofia (H)0-3
- Aug 2 · at Ludogorets (A)1-2
- Jul 25 · at FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.