First League (Bulgaria) · Sat, Sep 19 · 16:00 · Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna
Likeliest: Arda Kardzhali win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arda Kardzhali53%53%0
OursMarket
Draw27%27%−1
OursMarket
Cherno More Varna20%20%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 45% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arda Kardzhali
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · at CSKA Sofia (A)1-4
- Sep 4 · v Botev Plovdiv (H)2-3
- Aug 31 · v Botev Vratsa (H)2-0
- Aug 24 · at Lokomotiv Plovdiv (A)1-0
- Aug 17 · v Lokomotiv Sofia (H)3-1
Cherno More Varna
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 11 · v Lokomotiv Sofia (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Lokomotiv Plovdiv (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · at CSKA Sofia (A)1-3
- Aug 21 · v FK Dunav Ruse (H)3-1
- Aug 14 · at FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Arda Kardzhali | Cherno More Varna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.