First League (Bulgaria) · Sat, Oct 24 · 15:00 · Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia
Likeliest: Levski Sofia win · 57%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the away win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Arda Kardzhali18%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Levski Sofia57%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arda Kardzhali
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 12 · at Ludogorets (A)0-5
- Sep 19 · v Cherno More Varna (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at CSKA Sofia (A)1-4
- Sep 4 · v Botev Plovdiv (H)2-3
- Aug 31 · v Botev Vratsa (H)2-0
Levski Sofia
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 15 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Cherno More Varna (A)2-0
- Sep 17 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Botev Vratsa (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Arda Kardzhali | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.