Friendly International (World) · Tue, Oct 6 · 23:00 · Argentina vs Benin
Likeliest: Argentina win · 94%
We make it 52% for both teams to score. The market says 34%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Argentina94%92%+3
OursMarket
Draw5%7%−2
OursMarket
Benin1%2%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 34% | +17 |
| Double chance 1X | 99% | 98% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 6% | 8% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 96% | 93% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 99% | 98% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.7 | 0.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Argentina
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 4 · v Burkina Faso (H)0-0
- Sep 30 · v Bolivia (H)4-0
- Jul 19 · at Spain (A)0-0
- Jul 15 · at England (A)2-1
- Jul 12 · v Switzerland (H)1-1
Benin
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Sep 29 · v Mauritania (H)2-1
- Sep 25 · at Burkina Faso (A)0-0
- Jun 9 · at Togo (A)1-5
- Jun 5 · v Niger (H)1-1
- Mar 31 · at Guinea (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Argentina | Benin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 3-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 38% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.