Friendly International (World) · Sun, Oct 4 · 00:00 · Argentina vs Burkina Faso
Likeliest: Argentina win · 76%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 76% for the home win. The market says 75%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Argentina76%75%+1
OursMarket
Draw14%16%−2
OursMarket
Burkina Faso10%9%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 91% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 25% | 25% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 89% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Argentina
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 30 · v Bolivia (H)4-0
- Jul 19 · at Spain (A)0-0
- Jul 15 · at England (A)2-1
- Jul 12 · v Switzerland (H)1-1
- Jul 7 · v Egypt (H)3-2
Burkina Faso
DrawLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 28 · at Central African Republic (A)1-0
- Sep 25 · v Benin (H)0-0
- Jun 9 · at Belarus (A)2-2
- Jun 5 · at Russia (A)0-3
- Mar 31 · v Guinea-Bissau (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Argentina | Burkina Faso |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.