Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:00 · Argentinos Juniors Reserve vs Rosario Central Reserve
Likeliest: Rosario Central Reserve win · 39%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Argentinos Juniors Reserve30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+3
OursMarket
Rosario Central Reserve39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Argentinos Juniors Reserve
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 14 · at Tigre Reserve (A)1-0
- Oct 7 · v San Lorenzo Reserve (H)0-1
- Oct 1 · at Vélez Sarsfield Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 24 · v Platense Reserve (H)2-0
- Sep 15 · v River Plate Reserve (H)0-0
Rosario Central Reserve
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 14 · v Aldosivi Reserve (H)1-1
- Oct 6 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve (A)2-2
- Sep 30 · v Unión Santa Fe Reserve (H)2-0
- Sep 24 · at Newell's Old Boys Reserve (A)0-3
- Sep 16 · at Atlético Tucumán Reserve (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Argentinos Juniors Reserve | Rosario Central Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-1 | 3-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.