Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Nov 3 · 18:00 · Argentinos Juniors Reserve vs Talleres de Córdoba Reserve
Likeliest: Argentinos Juniors Reserve win · 36%
Likely scores: 0–0 18% · 1–0 12% · 1–1 12%
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Argentinos Juniors Reserve36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw35%31%+4
OursMarket
Talleres de Córdoba Reserve29%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 69% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Argentinos Juniors Reserve
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 27 · at Banfield Reserve (A)1-1
- Oct 20 · v Rosario Central Reserve (H)1-2
- Oct 14 · at Tigre Reserve (A)1-0
- Oct 7 · v San Lorenzo Reserve (H)0-1
- Oct 1 · at Vélez Sarsfield Reserve (A)1-1
Talleres de Córdoba Reserve
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 27 · v Aldosivi Reserve (H)2-0
- Oct 21 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve (A)1-0
- Oct 15 · v Unión Santa Fe Reserve (H)3-0
- Oct 8 · at Atlético Tucumán Reserve (A)0-2
- Oct 1 · v Godoy Cruz Reserve (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Argentinos Juniors Reserve | Talleres de Córdoba Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-2 | 3-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.