2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Sep 20 · 11:30 · Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim
Likeliest: Arminia Bielefeld win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arminia Bielefeld45%45%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
1. FC Heidenheim29%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arminia Bielefeld
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 11 · at Darmstadt 98 (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v FC St. Pauli (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at 1. FC Nürnberg (A)1-4
- Aug 22 · at SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (A)2-2
- Aug 16 · v Energie Cottbus (H)3-0
1. FC Heidenheim
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 13 · v Holstein Kiel (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)1-0
- Aug 29 · v SG Dynamo Dresden (H)5-3
- Aug 23 · at SSV Jeddeloh (A)2-5
- Aug 15 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Arminia Bielefeld | 1. FC Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-3 | 4-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.