Premier League (England) · Sat, Apr 11 · 11:30 · Arsenal vs AFC Bournemouth
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 69%
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal69%66%+4
OursMarket
Draw17%21%−3
OursMarket
AFC Bournemouth14%14%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 86% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 34% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 79% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 83% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinWinLossLossWin
- Apr 7 · at Sporting CP (A)1-0
- Apr 4 · at Southampton (A)1-2
- Mar 22 · v Manchester City (H)0-2
- Mar 17 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)2-0
- Mar 14 · v Everton (H)2-0
AFC Bournemouth
DrawDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Mar 20 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
- Mar 14 · at Burnley (A)0-0
- Mar 3 · v Brentford (H)0-0
- Feb 28 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
- Feb 21 · at West Ham United (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 3-7-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 2-6-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.