Premier League (England) · Sat, Jan 18 · 17:30 · Arsenal vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Arsenal50%——
OursMarket
Draw27%——
OursMarket
Aston Villa22%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinDrawLossWin
- Jan 15 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-1
- Jan 7 · v Newcastle United (H)0-2
- Jan 4 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Jan 1 · at Brentford (A)3-1
Aston Villa
WinWinWin
- Jan 15 · at Everton (A)1-0
- Jan 10 · v West Ham United (H)2-1
- Jan 4 · v Leicester City (H)2-1