Premier League (England) · Tue, Dec 30 · 20:15 · Arsenal vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 62%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal62%66%−5
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+3
OursMarket
Aston Villa15%13%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 54% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 87% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 34% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 83% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
LossWinWinWinWin
- Dec 27 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-1
- Dec 20 · at Everton (A)1-0
- Dec 13 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-1
- Dec 10 · at Club Brugge (A)3-0
- Dec 6 · at Aston Villa (A)1-2
Aston Villa
WinWinWinWinWin
- Dec 27 · at Chelsea (A)2-1
- Dec 21 · v Manchester United (H)2-1
- Dec 14 · at West Ham United (A)3-2
- Dec 11 · at Basel (A)2-1
- Dec 6 · v Arsenal (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 10-0-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.