Premier League (England) · Wed, Dec 3 · 19:30 · Arsenal vs Brentford
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 65%
We make it 54% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal65%68%−3
OursMarket
Draw21%20%+1
OursMarket
Brentford14%12%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 55% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 88% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 32% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 85% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Nov 30 · at Chelsea (A)1-1
- Nov 26 · v FC Bayern München (H)3-1
- Nov 23 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)4-1
- Nov 8 · at Sunderland (A)2-2
- Nov 4 · at Slavia Praha (A)3-0
Brentford
WinLossWinLossWin
- Nov 29 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Nov 22 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-2
- Nov 9 · v Newcastle United (H)3-1
- Nov 1 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-2
- Oct 28 · at Grimsby Town (A)5-0
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.