EFL Cup (England) · Wed, Oct 29 · 19:45 · Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Arsenal55%——
OursMarket
Draw23%——
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion22%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 26 · v Crystal Palace (H)1-0
- Oct 21 · v Atlético Madrid (H)4-0
- Oct 18 · at Fulham (A)1-0
- Oct 4 · v West Ham United (H)2-0
- Oct 1 · v Olympiacos F.C. (H)2-0
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 25 · at Manchester United (A)2-4
- Oct 18 · v Newcastle United (H)2-1
- Oct 5 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-1
- Sep 27 · at Chelsea (A)3-1
- Sep 23 · at Barnsley (A)6-0
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-1-0 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.