Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 27 · 15:00 · Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 63%
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal63%70%−7
OursMarket
Draw20%19%+2
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion17%12%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 59% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 88% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 30% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 81% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 86% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinLossWinWinWin
- Dec 20 · at Everton (A)1-0
- Dec 13 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-1
- Dec 10 · at Club Brugge (A)3-0
- Dec 6 · at Aston Villa (A)1-2
- Dec 3 · v Brentford (H)2-0
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Dec 20 · v Sunderland (H)0-0
- Dec 13 · at Liverpool (A)0-2
- Dec 7 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
- Dec 3 · v Aston Villa (H)3-4
- Nov 30 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Arsenal form·Brighton & Hove Albion form·Head-to-head record