Premier League (England) · Mon, May 18 · 19:00 · Arsenal vs Burnley
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 69%
A 19% draw. The market says 9%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal69%87%−19
OursMarket
Draw19%9%+11
OursMarket
Burnley12%4%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 71% | −23 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 38% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 96% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 13% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 91% | −11 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 96% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinDrawWinWinWin
- May 10 · at West Ham United (A)1-0
- May 5 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-0
- May 2 · v Fulham (H)3-0
- Apr 29 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Newcastle United (H)1-0
Burnley
LossLossLossLossDraw
- May 10 · v Aston Villa (H)2-2
- May 1 · at Leeds United (A)1-3
- Apr 22 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- Apr 19 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-4
- Apr 11 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.