EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Feb 3 · 20:00 · Arsenal vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 48%
We make it 67% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 56%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal48%56%−9
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Chelsea30%20%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 56% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 56% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 80% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 44% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 74% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Jan 31 · at Leeds United (A)4-0
- Jan 28 · v Kairat (H)3-2
- Jan 25 · v Manchester United (H)2-3
- Jan 20 · at Inter (A)3-1
- Jan 17 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-0
Chelsea
WinWinWinWinWin
- Jan 31 · v West Ham United (H)3-2
- Jan 28 · at Napoli (A)3-2
- Jan 25 · at Crystal Palace (A)3-1
- Jan 21 · v Pafos FC (H)1-0
- Jan 17 · v Brentford (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.