Premier League (England) · Sun, Mar 1 · 16:30 · Arsenal vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 50%
A 28% away win. The market says 17%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal50%61%−11
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Chelsea28%17%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 55% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 54% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 83% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 39% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 78% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Feb 22 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)4-1
- Feb 18 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)2-2
- Feb 15 · v Wigan Athletic (H)4-0
- Feb 12 · at Brentford (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Sunderland (H)3-0
Chelsea
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Feb 21 · v Burnley (H)1-1
- Feb 13 · at Hull City (A)4-0
- Feb 10 · v Leeds United (H)2-2
- Feb 7 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)3-1
- Feb 3 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.