Premier League (England) · Sun, Sep 6 · 15:30 · Arsenal vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 65%
A 65% home win. The market says 57%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal65%57%+8
OursMarket
Draw18%25%−7
OursMarket
Chelsea17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 54% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 54% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 43% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 75% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 76% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Aug 31 · at Aston Villa (A)1-0
- Aug 21 · v Coventry City (H)3-0
- Aug 16 · v Manchester City (H)3-0
- May 30 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-1
- May 30 · at PSG (A)1-1
Chelsea
WinLossWinWinWin
- Aug 30 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)4-3
- Aug 27 · v Luton Town (H)2-0
- Aug 24 · at Fulham (A)3-2
- May 24 · at Sunderland (A)1-2
- May 19 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.