Premier League (England) · Fri, Aug 21 · 19:00 · Arsenal vs Coventry City
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 56%
A 20% away win. The market says 6%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal56%82%−26
OursMarket
Draw24%12%+12
OursMarket
Coventry City20%6%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 61% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 38% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 94% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 18% | +26 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 88% | −12 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 93% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Aug 16 · v Manchester City (H)3-0
- May 30 · at PSG (A)1-1
- May 30 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-1
- May 24 · at Crystal Palace (A)2-1
- May 18 · v Burnley (H)1-0
Coventry City
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- May 2 · at Watford (A)4-0
- Apr 26 · v Wrexham (H)3-1
- Apr 21 · v Portsmouth (H)5-1
- Apr 17 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.