Women's Super League (England) · Sun, Sep 13 · 13:45 · Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 94%
A tight one: we make it 94% for the home win. The market says 91%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal94%91%+3
OursMarket
Draw4%6%−3
OursMarket
Crystal Palace3%3%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 98% | 97% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 6% | 9% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 96% | 94% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 97% | 97% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
Win
- Sep 6 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-0
Crystal Palace
Win
- Sep 6 · v Everton (H)1-0