Premier League (England) · Sat, Mar 14 · 17:30 · Arsenal vs Everton
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 61%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 43%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal61%70%−9
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Everton19%10%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 51% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 43% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 90% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 30% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 87% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Mar 11 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · at Mansfield Town (A)2-1
- Mar 4 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-0
- Mar 1 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- Feb 22 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)4-1
Everton
WinLossLossWinWin
- Mar 3 · v Burnley (H)2-0
- Feb 28 · at Newcastle United (A)3-2
- Feb 23 · v Manchester United (H)0-1
- Feb 10 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-2
- Feb 7 · at Fulham (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.