Premier League (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Arsenal vs Everton
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 72%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal72%69%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Everton9%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 31% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 86% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-0
- Oct 13 · v Lille (H)3-0
- Oct 10 · v Leeds United (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-3
- Sep 15 · at Ipswich Town (A)4-2
Everton
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Chelsea (H)0-2
- Oct 11 · at Hull City (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · v Wolverhampton (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.