Premier League (England) · Sat, May 2 · 16:30 · Arsenal vs Fulham
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 62%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal62%65%−3
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Fulham17%13%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 87% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 35% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 83% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Apr 29 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Newcastle United (H)1-0
- Apr 19 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
- Apr 15 · v Sporting CP (H)0-0
- Apr 11 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-2
Fulham
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Apr 25 · v Aston Villa (H)1-0
- Apr 18 · at Brentford (A)0-0
- Apr 11 · at Liverpool (A)0-2
- Mar 21 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Mar 15 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.