UEFA Women's Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Sep 22 · 19:00 · Arsenal vs HB Køge
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 79%
We make it 39% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal79%82%−3
OursMarket
Draw15%12%+3
OursMarket
HB Køge7%6%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 66% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 32% | +25 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 94% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 18% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 88% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 92% | 93% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · v Manchester United (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-0
- Sep 6 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-0
HB Køge
WinWinWinDraw
- Sep 2 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-1
- Aug 26 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)1-0
- Aug 8 · v Heart of Midlothian WFC (H)2-1
- Aug 5 · v Riga FC (H)4-1