Premier League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:30 · Arsenal vs Leeds United
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 72%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal72%69%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%19%−1
OursMarket
Leeds United10%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 31% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-3
- Sep 15 · at Ipswich Town (A)4-2
- Sep 12 · at Sunderland (A)2-0
- Sep 9 · at Napoli (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
Leeds United
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 20 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-0
- Sep 14 · v Newcastle United (H)4-1
- Sep 9 · at Chelsea (A)3-6
- Sep 5 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Brentford (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.